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Four people that think Facebook will Fail and why?

Posted on April 10, 2012 by Ali Murtaza

What these people are saying about facebook and it’s inherent demise.

1. According to Martin from Crowd Sourcing:

1. The immutable, Darwinian law of new technology.  Remember when Sony dominated consumer electronics, IBM dominated PCs and Nokia enjoyed a 70% market share?  History has shown that technology-based businesses with dominant market shares and apparently bullet-proof business models will eventually be replaced by younger, more innovative versions of themselves.

2. Yogi Berra’s law of popularity.  The much quoted former US baseball star once explained why a restaurant had started to decline: “no one goes there anymore, its got too popular.”  Now that just about everyone is on Facebook, it has no social cachet, it is merely a dull utility.

3. The first law of cool - no one is less cool than your parents.  Facebook started as a craze among college kids looking for a hot date.  It was cool, underground and alternative - the fact that the university authorities tried to ban it merely added to its mystique.  Now that your mum and dad are on Facebook, it’s time to hangout somewhere else.

4. Just because your paranoid, it doesn’t mean they’re not out to get you.  The wise people at Facebook keep saying that privacy isn’t an issue (the privacy word was mentioned a gazillion times in this week’s IPO) and that we are worrying unnecessarily. No we aren’t.  Up until now, people have been willing to trade privacy for utility: ‘Facebook is so dam useful’.  The introduction of Timeline will shift this delicate balance.  Suddenly being reminded about all the stupid things they’ve said and done during the past eight years will remind people that privacy is important and is worth protecting.

5. Making money is not a social purpose.  I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry when reading inZuckerberg’s letter announcing the IPO that Facebook has a social purpose: “to make the world more open and connected.”  Compared to the guerrilla evangelists of transparency at Wikileaks, Facebook’s declared commitment to openness sounds pretty hollow.  Openness is not knowing how drunk my boss got last night.  Equally, just about every business in the telecoms sector can claim to encourage connections and connectivity.  Facebook’s original purpose was to find good looking people on campus.  Its current purpose is to generate tons of cash by convincing corporations that it can offer advertising nirvana: I sat through one of their sales pitches last week – it is very compelling.

Of course, failure is a relative term.  Facebook won’t collapse over-night.  But in ten year’s time, will we look back at this week’s events as another AOL?

2. Sandro Pasquali from Quaro says

Everybody sit back down. Facebook will fail eventually, as all companies do. This isn’t because they are stupid or wrong or anything like that. The world changes. How long ago was 1995? As in Windows ’95? Microsoft was seen as an unstoppable juggernaut (and your government spent your money in a ridiculous effort to destroy them). Sony? Kodak? Lehman Brothers? Blockbuster? Toys R Us? Barnes & Noble? Nokia? Yahoo?
3. Stowe Boyd says

Shirky wanders off in business models — a reasonably interesting topic — but I am entranced by the thought that much of the social revolution so far has led to enormous growth for Facebook, and this might be the staging of Facebook’s eventual collapse.

Instead of a detailed and orderly disquisition, consider that Facebook has become that level of bureaucracy that demands that ‘one tribute too much’, the paramount player in the growing social pantheon, and one that many other companies have integrated their social strategies into.

We are at too early a stage in the social revolution for Facebook to remain the innovator in all areas: gaming, photos, search, deals, etc. But like AOL, another company that made the web bureaucratic, Facebook will fail as innovations by smaller upstarts and restructuring of the operating systems we all use by platform companies — Apple, Google, and Microsoft — will make Facebook’s complexity and richness a liability. And ultimately, a liability that they won’t be able to sidestep.

It will go down for several reasons and I would like to share with you what I a see inside Facebook’s patterns.

4. Edoardo Moreni of Great Preneurs says

    • Lack of PrivacyThey are seriously working on this matter, but it seems that they are doing three steps ahead and two backwards. They should improve it and they should show to the users in a serious and good way that their data will be protected forever.
    • DataWhy should all my data be kept by Facebook for the next centuries? This is a good question and Zuck hasn’t replied yet to it. There is no reason to save all my data forever and most of all when I delete my account everything related to it should be deleted. Why don’t they do it ? It seems they are obsessed with control and managing people. They want to make the world a better place, but they want to do it in their way.

      They have introduced a new feature to delete permanently all the data, but why should I follow this process? Wouldn’t it be easier to delete everything when I decide to leave Facebook?

    • SoftwareI am pretty sure that this could be the main concern. Facebook doesn’t care about what the users think. They constantly update their software because (I guess) their are afraid of what Google is doing with G+. It is always cool to have a software update with new features, but it is not cool that the software changes every six months. Why should we be obliged to have timeline? Who asked for it ?

      What Facebook didn’t understand is that 845 million of people live on the site. Facebook has become the home for many people. When you change and modify my home constantly I could be a little bit irritated. Instead, they should consider feedback and they should let the users choose what feature of Facebook they want.

    • Marketing and AdvertisingNormally, the average Facebook user doesn’t look at banners and so doesn’t care about it; but sometimes they are very intrusive and it seems that they are looking at you. Facebook has all your data and so it shows you banners that could interest you. In my case, there are always ads regarding pc, tech and software. Isn’t it a little bit weird? They are showing things that could be very interesting for me, but at the same time they are violating my privacy.
  • Apps
    The apps have the same problems of the software, because they are not stable. I mean, I have been using the Facebook iPad app for a while and it still seems they didn’t understand the user’s needs. They changed the app twice and the first release was very bad. They really didn’t think about how a user communicates with his friends and so it was difficult to type messages in the chat. I am underlining this point because we are talking about a company that has 3000+ employees.
 What do you think?
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